Indiana football has plenty to feel good about.
The Hoosiers are on a roll, with six consecutive wins to open the season, thus already clinching bowl eligibility. They’ve frequently looked dominant, particularly on offense, as they steamrolled their opponents in the first half of the season.
Indiana has risen from an afterthought in the Big Ten to a ranked team entering College Football Playoff conversations in Curt Cignetti’s first year.
But while things are going swimmingly so far, IU isn’t perfect. Here are a few things Indiana needs to be wary of coming out of the bye week.
Depth
Realistically, Indiana has remained pretty healthy so far this season.
IU lost guard Nick Kidwell to a season-ending injury during fall camp. But since then, the only Hoosiers starter to suffer an injury was linebacker Jailin Walker, who missed the second half of last week’s win at Northwestern. Kickoff specialist Derek McCormick and his backup, Alejandro Quintero, have both been out for a few games now, as well. Some other reserves, like Donaven McCulley and E.J. Williams Jr., have also missed time, but there hasn’t been any major in-season loss for IU to overcome yet.
If Walker isn’t back to full capacity for the Nebraska game, that would change. Linebacker is one of several areas at which injuries to starters could cause Indiana some problems. IU’s defense didn’t play particularly well against the Wildcats — both with and without Walker — and Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy didn’t make things much better. An Aiden Fisher injury would cause similar issues.
Obviously, with the way Kurtis Rourke has played, IU couldn’t afford to lose him — most teams would say the same about their starting quarterback. Tayven Jackson has looked like a more than capable backup both in camp and in limited game action in the first half of the season, but Rourke has been one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten.
Offensive line, tight end, and defensive back are other areas where injuries could be particularly troubling.
This isn’t meant to forecast any sort of worst case scenario for Indiana. But football is a violent sport, and injuries are unfortunately part of the game. The Hoosiers are off to a great start, and it’s fully deserved, but they’ve also benefitted from some good fortune in the first half of the season. If they start accruing more injuries, it could change things.
Schedule getting tougher
Plenty of writers and social media posters have talked about Indiana’s first-half schedule, and whether or not it should discount the 6-0 record.
But both sides of that debate can agree on one thing: the degree of difficulty will increase in the second half of the season. The combined record of Indiana’s first six opponents is 13-19; the second-half opponents have combined for a 22-12 record. There are plenty of winnable games in that stretch, for IU — Ohio State is the only team left on IU’s schedule ranked higher than the Hoosiers in ESPN’s SP+ rankings.
Indiana is a good team, capable of beating other good teams. The eye test supports it, and the numbers back it up — the Hoosiers rank in the top 30 in the country in passing offense, passing defense, rushing offense, and rushing defense. They’ve already shown the ability to win games in several different ways, and they’ve responded to adversity with poise. IU just has to prove itself against better teams, and those opportunities begin very soon.
Coverage concern
IU’s secondary, for the most part, has played well so far this season. But the linebackers have had some trouble in coverage, and it’s a potential liability in the middle of the defense.
Neither Fisher (56.1) nor Walker (56.5) grade well in coverage on Pro Football Focus. Jones, at 62.7, has the best coverage grade of any of IU’s linebackers, and that number doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.
Opponents are targeting Fisher (19 receptions, 25 targets) and Walker (17 receptions, 23 targets) nearly as often as they go after starting cornerbacks D’Angelo Ponds (16 receptions, 30 targets) and Jamier Johnson (17 receptions, 27 targets). The linebackers have both faced more targets than Amare Ferrell (11 receptions, 18 targets).
Fisher and Walker have also allowed more total yards in coverage than Ponds and Johnson, and the linebackers have given up more yards after catch than the cornerbacks as well — though, to be fair, the shorter routes against linebackers could allow more opportunity for YAC.
But on a team without many glaring on-field weaknesses so far this year, this is a potential cause for concern. The Hoosiers have already allowed some big plays against tight ends and slot receivers this year, and some of the better offenses they’ll see in the second half of the season could further exploit their linebackers if they can’t improve in coverage.
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