The 2024 college football season opener is less than two months away, and even though it certainly may not feel like it now, the afternoon of August 31st is rapidly approaching to usher in the official start of the Cignetti era of Hoosier football.
From a new head coach and a new-look roster to a plethora of new gameday experiences and a debut of fresh uniforms, the new era of Indiana football promises to be one full of interesting storylines. With that in mind, the intern makes his return to bring you some predictions heading into a pivotal season for the Hoosiers.
It’s practically impossible that all predictions turn out right, so under every prediction is my personal confidence level for each take.
Indiana hovers around bowl-eligibility in Cignetti’s debut season
We have all heard it folks, the goal for Indiana is to win games this season. The big question is if they can walk the walk and make a bowl appearance for the first time since 2020.
Our staff’s official predictions will come out earlier to the start of the season, but I’ll go ahead and give a crack.
Since we haven’t seen any action apart from their spring game, it’s difficult to predict how well Indiana performs against other Big Ten opponents. The roster construction efforts were impressive, but only time will tell if the offseason work pays off.
Indiana should be heavy favorites against FIU, Western Illinois, and Charlotte in their first three home contests, and I don’t see a reason to pick against them. The next three wins are not as easy to find, with the remaining opportunities against Big Ten opponents UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Washington. Home field advantage is also at play here, but of these teams, I think it’s feasible the Hoosiers could come away with 3-4 more wins in conference play.
I’ll stay on the safer side and predict the Hoosiers going 6-6 in 2024.
Confidence Level: Up there, but a lot of scenarios possible.
Donaven McCulley leads receivers in most (if not all) categories
I think this is one of my more safer guesses due to McCulley achieving a similar feat last season. McCulley led Indiana’s receivers in catches, yards, and touchdowns in 2023.
Cignetti did say McCulley needed to “step it up” in earlier spring, but that comes with a lot of big expectations for the returning senior, who held offers from impressive programs such as Michigan, Penn State, and Kentucky before withdrawing from the transfer portal in the offseason. If McCulley shows anywhere near the developmental jump he made last season, this could be a no-brainer in the first few weeks.
A few could challenge him in a few stats, however. Elijah Sarratt was one of two receivers with 1,000+ yards last season for JMU, and is the highest-graded transfer receiver in the country, according to PFF. However, Sarratt does have to make the transition to Big Ten defenses, and could see some early hiccups.
With McCulley having NFL aspirations, I expect a big season for the talented wideout.
Confidence Level: Very high, barring anything significant
Aiden Fisher transitions to Big Ten well, finishes all-conference
This is another one that I have a lot of confidence in, especially due to Fisher’s spring game performance. He also had a good sophomore campaign, finishing as a third team All-Sun Belt selection a team-leading 108 tackles.
I do think Fisher should also have no trouble being the team leader of tackles this season for the Hoosiers as well. Fisher was brought in to replace Aaron Casey in the middle linebacker position, and he has a good chance to have a similar impact.
Jacob Mangum-Farrar and Jailin Walker were also under consideration. In fact, if you would have asked me before the position change, I probably would have picked Mangum-Farrar. However, with Mangum-Farrar moving to the outside, I just don’t see him having higher numbers than Fisher.
In terms of All-Big Ten, I could see Fisher sneaking into the third team or honorable mentions list, due to some veterans across the Big Ten heading for the pros. If not this year, Fisher has a good chance of making the list in the coming years, if he continues this kind of production at Indiana.
Confidence Level: High on the tackling total, could take a couple seasons for All-Big Ten
James Evans wins Big Ten Punter of the Year
This is one of the positions where you have the best chance to predict, and I think Evans has a really good opportunity this season to come close to making the All-Big Ten first team.
Evans has improved statistically each season at Indiana. He averaged 45.7 yards per attempt in 57 punts in the 2023 season, and has placed 66 punts inside the 20 in his career. His career-high long came against Rutgers last season, where he launched a 70-yarder inside Memorial Stadium, which would be the fourth-longest in the Big Ten in 2023.
I feel good on this prediction, but Evans certainly has some competition across the conference. Second-team selection Ryan Eckley is back at Michigan State, and national championship winner Tommy Doman returns to Michigan. Evans is slated to play just his fourth full season of football in his life though, and when someone has that kind of improvement across each season, it’s hard to pick against them.
Confidence Level: Pretty high, but has some work to do
D’Angelo Ponds stands out in the secondary, leads team in PFF grade
Ponds is my personal favorite transfer portal signee, and for good reason. He was ranked as the third-highest graded defensive transfer in the nation according to PFF, and the second-highest cornerback. Indiana boasts two other transfer defenders in the top 10 of that list with defensive lineman CJ West and fellow defensive back Shawn Asbury.
If you watch Ponds’ film, it is very impressive. His ability to play the ball on 50-50’s stands out the most, along with his ability to tackle in the open field. Due to his play, Ponds was selected as a Freshman All-American across multiple media outlets, including On3 and CFN.
For those unfamiliar with PFF grading, it measures players based on performance and the context of their performance. To put it short, it’s focused on adding extra points to a grade during a more impactful play.
I think Ponds is going to have one of the bigger impacts on the Indiana defense. Similarly to Aiden Fisher, I think Ponds transitions to the Big Ten smoothly, and boasts some impressive numbers by the end of the season.
Even though I feel confident, it’s still a tough subject to predict before the start of the season. However, if Ponds continues to be impactful on the defensive side, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him with a 90+ PFF grade at the conclusion of the season.
Confidence Level: Would not be surprised, but too tough to predict
Tayven Jackson earns chance to start by end of the season
We’re done with the safe predictions around here.
Tayven Jackson had an interesting first season as the quarterback for Indiana. Appearing in nine games with five starts, Jackson threw for two touchdowns and five interceptions. Jackson showed some real flashes of potential in 2023, and could have been a candidate for the starting job next season.
Enter Kurtis Rourke.
Rourke transferred into Indiana not long after Cignetti was hired. At Ohio, Rourke finished with over 7,500 passing yards across five seasons, and was tabbed first team All-Mac his junior season. After a second-team selection a season ago, Rourke enters as the clear starter to begin the 2024 season for the Hoosiers.
Something tells me it COULD end up different, though. In spring ball, Indiana showed off their new run-and-gun spread offense, and Jackson performed better than Rourke in that small sample size. Rourke’s main issue was escaping when flushed out of the pocket, while Jackson seemed a lot more comfortable in those situations. I think Jackson has a bit of a better chance of fitting in Indiana’s offense long term due to his skill set, while Rourke could take some hits similar to the spring game.
That’s not to say Rourke can’t run though. He finished with 11 rushing touchdowns last season for Ohio, so he certainly has the ability to escape the pocket. However, if Indiana is looking for a quarterback they can develop and utilize past this season alone, I think Jackson is the right choice.
Of course, this is one where we have to wait for the season to play out. After all, Rourke is facing a tough task ahead, as he too has to make the adjustment of facing some hard Big Ten defenses. In terms of confidence though, this one’s pretty low. If we were talking about a more long term thought process, Jackson would be a favorable choice. As mentioned though, Cignetti wants to win now, and if that means sticking with your most experienced guy at the most important position, then Rourke is the clear choice.
Confidence: Pretty low, but you never know
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