Indiana gave its NCAA Tournament resume a major boost with their 66-60 win over Ohio State Saturday.
And with just the Big Ten Tournament remaining ahead of Sunday’s Selection Show, it appears unlikely at this point the Hoosiers will miss the 2025 Big Dance.
But that’s not entirely free from doubt.
As of Monday morning, IU is in 98 of the 103 brackets at Bracket Matrix. Their average seed there is 11.08, with a range of No. 10 to No. 12. There are two brackets updated since Saturday’s Ohio State game that continue to leave the Hoosiers out.
Looking at the bracket of ESPN’s Joe Lunardi as of Sunday for an example illustrates how the Hoosiers continue to be on the margin. He has IU as the last team in the field getting a bye (i.e. avoiding the First Four). That means only four teams are between IU and missing the field altogether in Lunardi’s bracket.
For the sixth straight week IU moved up in the NCAA’s NET rankings, from No. 55 to No. 52 as of Monday morning. That marks their best NET ranking of the season. At the moment IU has a 4-12 record in Quad-1 games, and a 15-0 record in the other three quads.
The NET isn’t the only measurement tool the NCAA Selection Committee considers. There are actually seven, and IU is ranked higher in some of the others vs. the NET:
- NET – 52
- Torvik – 54 (Torvik still gives IU just a 52.8% chance to make the field)
- Wins Above Bubble (WAB) – 44
- KenPom – 44
- Basketball Power Index (BPI) – 52
- KPI – 32
- Strength of Record – 47
Historically, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee hasn’t placed a great deal of emphasis on conference tournament results. And with one notable exception, Indiana should really only be able to help its chances this week at the Big Ten Tournament. They’ll play a Quad-1 game on Thursday against Oregon, and have another waiting against Michigan State on Friday if they win.
But IU still has plenty to play for this week in Indianapolis. Here are some things to watch for that could help or hurt Indiana’s chances:
– Keep it close vs. Oregon: The analytical tools utilized by the NCAA factor the scoring margin of the game against expectations. KenPom projects Oregon will win 74-72. Any significant divergence from what’s expected to be a very close game would help/hurt IU more than a close win or loss. Blowout losses to Louisville, Iowa and Illinois are hurting IU’s resume at the moment.
– Leaving no doubt: A win over Oregon would eliminate any remaining doubt about Indiana getting in the field. Despite hundreds of projections, you just never know where the Committee truly stands. No one saw the Hoosiers as a First Four team in 2022, but that’s where they ended up.
– Avoiding the First Four: Did we mention the First Four? Indiana can avoid an extra game next week in Dayton by winning games this week. One win would probably be enough to ensure the Hoosiers avoid the First Four. Fans don’t need to be reminded of the burden playing in Dayton late Tuesday night and then in Portland, Ore. Thursday placed on the Hoosiers three years ago.
– Better Positioning and Momentum: Of course with a solid week at the Big Ten Tournament, IU can improve their draw for March Madness and therefore increase the likelihood they’ll go on a run. And it’s interesting to note the Hoosiers played very close games against the top four seeds (MSU, Maryland, Michigan and UCLA) in the Big Ten. Could IU be last year’s N.C. State, and turn a strong conference tournament run into an NCAA run?
– Win the Whole Thing? Indiana has never won the Big Ten Tournament since its inception in 1998. But Mike Woodson has reached the semifinals twice in three years. Winning the whole thing this weekend in front of a partisan crowd in Indianapolis is the one sure way to guarantee the Hoosiers a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
– Bad Weeks for Fellow Bubble Teams: Here are some teams on the bubble with Indiana. If they lose early this week, it should only help the Hoosiers: Baylor, Utah State, Arkansas, San Diego State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Xavier, Boise State, North Carolina, Texas and Colorado State.
– Beware of Bid Stealers: Not far above the cut line, Indiana can get bumped out of the field by “bid stealers” this week. A “bid stealer” is a team that would not receive an at-large selection to the NCAA Tournament but wins its conference tournament to earn an automatic bid. See: N.C. State a year ago. The inverse holds as a helpful factor too. If a team that would be on the bubble unless it wins the conference tournament is crowned a league champion this week, that helps the Hoosiers.
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