Before this 2024-25 IU basketball season started there was healthy debate among both the fanbase and the media about how a group of talented players would fit together to form a functioning basketball team.
The most common question was whether Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers would be able to play effectively with transfer center Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau both on the floor.
We’re to the point in the season where we’ve got a healthy amount of lineup data to probe into this further.
Lineups with Ballo and Reneau together have played 452 possessions and 265 minutes, according to CBB Analytics. Those lineups have produced a +4.6 point differential per 100 possessions, with 1.09 points per possession scored on offense, and 1.04 points per possession allowed on defense.
Lineups with Ballo but not Reneau have played 661 possessions and 385 minutes. Those lineups have produced a +8 point differential per 100 possessions, with 1.13 points per possession on offense, and 1.05 points per possession allowed on defense.
Lineups with Reneau but not Ballo have played 214 possessions and 121 minutes. Those lineups have produced a +14.1 point differential per 100 possessions, with 1.22 points per possession on offense, and 1.08 points per possession allowed on defense.
So while the data suggests Ballo and Reneau are Indiana’s best two players from a box score +/- standpoint, Indiana actually functions better overall as a team with just one of them on the floor. And the metrics indicating that value are probably understated, because more of Indiana’s Ballo only possessions came when Reneau was hurt, and that was exclusively against Big Ten opponents, while a lot more of the Ballo and Reneau together possessions came during the nonconference.
Things get interesting when IU is running lineups with Mackenzie Mgbako and Luke Goode on the floor together. That has happened for 525 possessions, and IU is fairly neutral, with good offense and poor defense. The Hoosiers have a -0.4 point differential per 100 possessions, with 1.15 points per possession on offense, and 1.16 points per possession allowed on defense.
The Mgbako and Goode scenario improves quite a bit when Trey Galloway joins them. That’s happened on 387 possessions. IU jumps to a +5.4 point differential per 100 possessions, with 1.18 points per possession on offense, and 1.13 on defense. In fact, it’s Galloway and Goode who are the common denominator in IU’s top-5 offensive lineups with at least 20 possessions.
It keeps getting better when you add Ballo to Galloway, Goode and Mgbako. We’ve seen that on 281 possessions. Then the Hoosiers are at +16.8 point differential per 100 possessions, including 1.22 points per possession on offense, and 1.06 on defense. All things considered, those four on the floor together are probably the best case scenario for IU right now. And Ballo is the constant on IU’s top seven defensive lineups with at least 20 possessions together.
The best version of the Galloway, Goode, Mgbako and Ballo four on the floor has come when Anthony Leal joins them. Those five jump to a +37.6 point differential per 100 possessions, with elite offense (1.61 points per possession) but suspect defense (1.23 points per possession). We’ve only seen those five together for 29 possessions, with most of them coming at Purdue. So the data there is limited. But it’s IU’s best offensive lineup with at least 20 possessions.
Subbing in Kanaan Carlyle or Myles Rice for Leal has also been positive when grouped with Galloway, Goode, Mgbako and Ballo. The only negative version of those four has been when Bryson Tucker joins them, but that’s on very limited data (21 possessions).
The best lineup of all for Indiana has been Leal, Galloway, Goode and Ballo, joined by Tucker. That group is at +73 point differential per 100 possessions, although we’ve only seen them together 30 possessions, and mostly against low-major foes. It’s also Indiana’s best defensive lineup with at least 20 possessions. Tucker is a real wildcard. Of the seven groups he’s played with for at least 20 possessions, four have a negative point differential and three are positive. But he is an overall net positive when on the floor, at a +8 point differential per 100 possessions.
APPEARANCES ON INDIANA’S TOP 10 LINEUPS
(Based on points differential per 100 possessions, lineups with at least 20 possessions)
- Oumar Ballo: 9
- Trey Galloway: 8
- Luke Goode: 6
- Mackenzie Mgbako: 6
- Myles Rice: 6
- Malik Reneau: 4
- Anthony Leal: 4
- Kanaan Carlyle: 4
- Bryson Tucker: 3
APPEARANCES ON INDIANA’S BOTTOM NINE LINEUPS
(Based on points differential per 100 possessions, lineups with at least 20 possessions)
- Mackenzie Mgbako: 7
- Luke Goode: 7
- Myles Rice: 6
- Oumar Ballo: 6
- Malik Reneau: 4
- Bryson Tucker: 4
- Trey Galloway: 4
- Anthony Leal: 3
- Kanaan Carlyle: 1
- Langdon Hatton: 1
Note: There are 19 total lineups with at least 20 possessions together. The top 10 have a positive point differential, the bottom nine are negative.
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