The biggest outside complaint regarding Indiana’s College Football Playoff resume is their strength of schedule, which is currently No. 100 according to ESPN’s FPI.
One opponent on Indiana’s 2024 schedule is head and shoulders above the rest, and they are the next team the Hoosiers will face.
So what happens if the Hoosiers happen to fall flat at Ohio State next week and get blown out?
At least in some circles, current CFP No. 5 IU would be met with a big ‘ole dose of “I told you so” in that scenario.
ESPN’s Rece Davis joined “The Pat McAfee Show” Wednesday and was asked whether he thought a big loss to Ohio State might knock Indiana out of the top 12.
Davis, who was in Bloomington for ESPN College Gameday a few weeks ago, believes IU looks the part of a playoff team, but thinks they could be in a bit of trouble if they were to lose ugly to the Buckeyes.
“I think it (Indiana falling out of the CFP bracket) is possible if it’s a big loss,” Davis said. “I was just thinking about this today, because I kind of get put out with the people who, immediately, no matter what the committee says, they’re outraged, they’re disgusted, ‘How can this happen?’ They don’t know what they’re talking about.
“Indiana has answered the questions that at least I deem important: ‘Do you look like a playoff team? Have you handled your competition well? How often have you played at your best?’ And the only place they fall short is, ‘Who have you done it against?’”
“So I do think the way they play against Ohio State will be important,” Davis said. “I don’t foresee this happening — I think Indiana’s a really good football team, but if they were to have happened to them by Ohio State what, say, the Hoosiers did to Nebraska, beat them 56-7, then I think it calls into question some of the other things that we’ve seen, most notably, ‘OK, who have you done this against?’
Ohio State has played two ranked teams this year, and both games were close. The Buckeyes lost at Oregon 32-31, and won at Penn State, 20-13. They only beat the Nebraska team IU manhandled 21-17.
And based on the way Indiana has played to this point, a close game seems like the more likely scenario. And in the case of a close loss to CFP No. 2 in Columbus, Davis believe the Hoosiers will remain in the bracket.
“If you go and play well, and you just happen not to beat a team that I think is capable of winning the national championship in their stadium, then I think Indiana’s a lock to make the playoff. I think it’s far more likely than not that they will regardless of what happens in Columbus.
“If they play well against Ohio State, I think they looked like a playoff team from start to finish over the course of the season and deserve to be there, but that strength of schedule number is not one of the things that’s going to help their cause. It’s going to be one of the things that they have overcome by the way they played.
“When you watch the team play, are they executing well? Do they look like a playoff team? It’s not just recruiting stars or size, speed, anything like that. How do they execute? Do they look like a team that is worthy of being on that stage, and I think Indiana has passed that test easily.”
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