ESPN’s data driven SP+ model is not predicting a massive reversal of fortunes in year one of the Curt Cignetti era.
That outlet’s Bill Connelly released his first rankings of the 2024 season, and Indiana comes in at No. 90 in the country, and last in the 18-team Big Ten. The model says IU will have the No. 102 offense, and No. 66 defense.
One thing worth noting right off the top, SP+ has no input to account for a coaching change. So the working assumption is Curt Cignetti is going to step in and be Tom Allen.
Here is how the SP+ model forecasts the Big Ten prior to spring practice and a second transfer portal window, with 2024 IU opponents in bold.
Note that there are 134 teams in FBS in 2024.
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
5. Michigan
7. Penn State
23. USC
25. Wisconsin
26. Iowa
29. Washington
37. UCLA
39. Nebraska
41. Minnesota
43. Rutgers
45. Maryland
55. Northwestern
62. Illinois
79. Michigan State
86. Purdue
90. Indiana
Indiana finished the 2023 campaign, Allen’s last in Bloomington, No. 92 overall (also last in the Big Ten), with the No. 105 offense and No. 73 defense. SP+ predicted IU to be the 64th best team, so they significantly underperformed expectations.
SP+ is a form of power rankings based on data.
This is how Connelly describes the model:
It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
Connelly says the SP+ projections stem from three primary questions: How good has your team been recently? How well has it recruited? And who returns from last year’s roster?
Indiana’s recent success (2019-20) likely contributed to an overestimation of their potential in 2023 according to the model. By the same token, those years are now flushed out of SP+, and it could be underestimating Cignetti’s track record. Again, his run of never having a losing season is not in the forecast for Indiana at all, but seems to be benefiting James Madison, which is No. 57 despite losing their coach and a lot of their top talent.
That could be why recent Vegas and human predictions seem a bit rosier in their forecast for IU.
The FanDuel Sportsbook set Indiana’s over/under win total at 5.5. Brett McMurphy’s 2024 bowl projections on Action Network have Indiana getting to six wins and playing in the Quick Lane Bowl.
Indiana also faces Florida International (SP+ No. 127), Charlotte (No. 125) and Western Illinois (FCS) in 2024. The most likely records are 4-8 and 5-7 according to SP+, with the Purdue and Michigan State games effectively toss-ups.
The biggest factor in the SP+ model is returning production. That includes both players who have returned from last season, and transfers. At 56% overall returning production, Indiana ranks 85th (out of 134 teams) when it comes to overall returning production. That includes 59% on offense (74th), and 53% on defense (87th).
This is how the entire Big Ten ranks in returning production for the 2024 season:
(Teams IU plays in 2024 are in bold)
- Nebraska – 77%
- Northwestern – 76%
- Rutgers – 74%
- Minnesota – 71%
- Wisconsin – 71%
- Penn State – 70%
- Oregon – 69%
- Iowa – 69%
- Illinois – 62%
- Ohio State – 61%
- Michigan State – 61%
- Indiana 56%
- UCLA – 51%
- Purdue 51%
- USC – 50%
- Maryland – 45%
- Michigan – 36%
- Washington – 36%
We’ll have a position-by-position look at IU’s roster turnover soon.
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