The longer Indiana stayed in a close battle against No. 10 Illinois on Saturday, the more it became a must-win.
This contest wasn’t in must-win territory going in. Indiana badly needed this sort of result to go its way, but it entered Champaign as a 15-point underdog. It’s hard to call any game a true must-win if victory can’t reasonably be expected.
But the Hoosiers led the Fighting Illini by seven points with 12:43 remaining at State Farm Center. They tied the game with 1:29 left. When it’s that close, that late in the game, expectations are tossed aside. It became a game IU couldn’t afford to let away.
But that’s exactly what happened. After Mackenzie Mgbako’s gutsy mid-range shot to tie the game in the final minutes, Illinois pulled away at the free-throw line for a 70-62 win.
IU (12-8, 4-5 Big Ten) doesn’t have a lot of chances like this remaining on the schedule. This was a road game against a top-10 opponent, and it was within reach. It would’ve been IU’s first Quad 1 win of the season. The only game ahead that would rival the magnitude of that opportunity is the Feb. 10 rematch with Purdue in West Lafayette.
And given various circumstances entering this game, it would’ve been a pretty miraculous win for the Hoosiers. They were in a slump — three losses in the previous four games, including two ugly defeats the week prior against the two teams ahead of Illinois (15-5, 6-3) in the Big Ten standings. Going into a road game like that without Kel’el Ware, who missed his second straight game with an ankle injury, was a tough assignment.
But Indiana only has itself to blame. IU went 0 for 9 from 3-point range — its first time without a made 3-pointer in an entire game since 2010.
The Hoosiers aren’t known for their 3-point prowess. Entering Saturday, they ranked 331st in the nation (out of 362) with 5.3 made threes per game, and 353rd in the country with 15.4 attempts per game. IU is last in the Big Ten in both categories.
Throughout this season, IU head coach Mike Woodson has often emphasized that his players take enough 3-point attempts, and just need to make the ones they take.
But Illinois head coach Brad Underwood targeted Indiana’s weakness in this matchup. He was willing to pass up double-teaming Malik Reneau in exchange for suffocating IU at the 3-point line. Mgbako played well on both ends of the court Saturday, but he snapped a streak of eight straight games without a made 3-pointer. It’s only his second such game since Thanksgiving. He and Trey Galloway both went 0 for 3 from long range.
Underwood set a goal for the Illini to hold IU to three made 3-pointers or fewer. But he didn’t expect them to completely blank the Hoosiers from beyond the arc.
“It’s pretty unrealistic to think you’re going to get zero, in a 40-minute college basketball game,” Underwood said after the game. “It’s really, really hard to do.”
Illinois wasn’t shooting 3-pointers at a remarkably efficient rate, going 7 for 23 from beyond the arc. But those seven made triples to IU’s zero was one of the biggest differences in the game.
But that wasn’t the only long-standing weakness that plagued the Hoosiers on Saturday.
Indiana has struggled at the free-throw line for so much of this season, ranking 316th in the country and 10th in the Big Ten with a 66.4 free-throw percentage entering Saturday. The Hoosiers get to the line with regularity — IU’s 22.9 free-throw attempts per game entering Saturday ranked 47th in the country and third in the conference.
So that means IU is leaving a lot of points at the foul line in most games.
And in Champaign, that burned the Hoosiers yet again. IU went 12 for 22 at the foul line, its third-worst free-throw percentage in a game this season. Xavier Johnson rejoined the starting lineup and played his best overall game in three weeks, but he particularly struggled at the charity stripe, going 2 for 7. Reneau went 5 for 9.
Out of 13 total trips to the foul line Saturday, Indiana left points on the table nine times.
“That was the difference,” Woodson said. “Close games on the road, anywhere, you’ve got to make free throws. We were 12 for 22, so that was not good for our ballclub. And we missed them at critical times when we needed them.”
January has not been kind to Indiana. The Hoosiers have one more game, at home against Iowa on Tuesday, to try and rebuild some momentum going into the last month of the season. But with losses piling up, a still-barren résumé, and a Big Ten with fewer opportunities for season-altering wins than in previous years, Indiana’s outlook is bleak.
And that reality makes Saturday’s loss feel like an even bigger missed opportunity.
