BLOOMINGTON — For the second straight year, Indiana men’s basketball finds itself in a precarious situation in mid-January.
Indiana went on a three-game losing streak as Big Ten play restarted in January last year, and the situation was on the brink of spiraling out of control after the third loss, a drubbing at Penn State.
IU held an oft-referenced team meeting after that game, understanding how important the upcoming game against Wisconsin was to the rest of its season. The Badgers were unranked, and ultimately snapped their run of 19 straight NCAA Tournament bids. But the Hoosiers badly needed a win to just stop the bleeding and get back on track. And that was the day they saw everything change.
This year’s IU team isn’t in the exact same predicament; it entered Tuesday’s clash with No. 2 Purdue coming off a win, and had a winning record in Big Ten play. But the Hoosiers are clearly in worse shape than they were a year ago, and a rivalry win would’ve certainly altered their outlook going forward.
That’s why Indiana’s 87-66 loss to the Boilermakers feels damaging, even if victory couldn’t be reasonably expected against a team that stout. In a similar scenario as that Wisconsin game — an important contest in front of a rocking Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall atmosphere — the Hoosiers (12-6, 4-3 Big Ten) came up well short. They allowed their biggest rival to completely dominate them for too much of the game.
IU head coach Mike Woodson acknowledged his team wasn’t tough enough, which was hard for senior Trey Galloway to hear.
“I mean, especially when it’s a big game like this. You’ve got to find ways to fight and be tough,” the guard said after the game.
Indiana lost this game in the first half. It actually outscored Purdue (16-2, 5-2) in the second half — which, if nothing else, showed resolve in continuing to fight despite a hefty deficit. But it’s hard to beat anyone while digging a 22-point hole in one half. The Hoosiers shot the ball poorly in the first half, going 35.1 percent from the field and 16.7 percent from 3-point range with a lot of wide-open misfires. And they didn’t defend anywhere near well enough to overcome those offensive woes.
Mackenzie Mgbako checked out with 15:30 remaining after picking up his second foul, and Kel’el Ware joined him around two minutes later. Purdue led 12-9 when Ware went to the bench. By the time Mgbako returned, after the final media timeout of the half, the Boilermakers had grown their lead to 39-25. And from there, they closed out the half on a 12-4 run — even after the underclassmen starters checked back in, the damage had been done to IU’s game.
“We got smacked (in) the first half, and you’ve got to give them credit,” Woodson said. “We couldn’t make shots. That was a big difference in the first half. And they made shots and they got to the free-throw line, and (Zach) Edey had a lot to do with that.”
Edey recorded another stellar performance, with a game-high 33 points on 11-of-23 shooting, and an 11-for-12 mark at the foul line, along with 14 rebounds. Ware possesses the length to be disruptive to the reigning National Player of the Year, but he converted a lot of the tough looks the sophomore forced him into. And Edey just dominated when IU had Payton Sparks, Malik Reneau, or anyone else guarding him.
Edey was the toughest player on the court Tuesday — and that, more than his statistical dominance, is the biggest concern for Indiana.
The clock is ticking
IU’s issue isn’t always toughness. Aside from its biggest weaknesses — free-throw shooting, rebounding, and low 3-point volume paired with poor 3-point defense — there isn’t necessarily a common thread to Indiana’s losses. Each has played out a little differently.
But one thing is true of all the games. These Hoosiers have repeatedly fallen flat against their toughest opponents this year. The only time they’ve played well enough to win in a high-profile game was against Kansas, and even then, they blew a double-digit second-half lead. With the added context of the month that’s followed that performance, it’s hard to call that anything other than a missed opportunity.
Indiana does not yet have a Quad 1 win this season. In fact, the Hoosiers have just two Quad 2 wins (Michigan and Ohio State). 10 of their 12 victories are Quad 3 or Quad 4 wins.
Rutgers is the only loss that doesn’t look great on Indiana’s résumé, but even so, that’s only a Quad 2 loss.
But simply avoiding bad losses doesn’t get you into the NCAA Tournament. You have to prove you belong by winning big regular-season games. And so far, Indiana hasn’t done that.
It’s difficult to call the Hoosiers a serious bubble team at this point. They’re included in just one bracket — Andy Katz’s — on BracketMatrix.com.
IU does still have opportunities to bolster its profile. Six of its remaining 13 games are Quad 1, per the NET rankings through Monday’s games. Another six are Quad 2. But last season, IU had racked up nine Quad 1 or 2 wins with multiple weeks ahead of the Big Ten Tournament. There’s not much time left to start accumulating quality wins before it’s too late.
Ironically, it’s now another battle against Wisconsin that could be a tone-setter for the rest of the season. But these Badgers are a far better opponent than last year’s squad was, and this game’s at the Kohl Center, where IU hasn’t won in 26 years.
Indiana’s rematch with Purdue in West Lafayette is its only other remaining game that would carry as much weight on its résumé as a win in Madison would.
Indiana’s season, to this point, doesn’t suggest an upset should be expected, at all. Its last two performances on the road have been exceedingly poor.
But the Hoosiers are running out of time to turn things around. They have a lot of work to do, and there are only so many chances left to pick up résumé-building wins.
The more IU lets those opportunities slip away, the less likely the rest of them will matter.
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