IU basketball game day essentials: Hoosiers vs. Oregon in Big Ten Tournament opener

Game Day Essentials:

Indiana (19-12, 10-10) vs. Oregon (23-8, 12-8)

• Tip Time: Noon Eastern, Thursday
• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (18,000), Indianapolis, Ind.
• Television: BTN (Guy Haberman, Stephen Bardo, Rick Pizzo)
• Radio: IU Radio Network (Don Fischer, Errek Suhr, John Herrick)
• Stream: Fox Sports
• Point Spread:  Oregon is a 1.5-point favorite
• KenPom Projected Score:  Oregon 74  Indiana 72
• History: Indiana leads leads, 3-1.
• Last Meeting: Oregon 73, IU 64 on March 4, 2025, in Eugene
• Tickets (via our StubHub affiliate link)

Three keys from last meeting:

1. Closing time.  Indiana took a 64-63 lead when Trey Galloway made a three with 1:58 left.  But the Hoosiers wouldn’t score again as Oregon closed the game with a 10-0 run.  The Ducks made a 30-foot late shot clock three to reclaim the lead, and IU missed their last three shots and had two turnovers in the final two minutes to give it away.  Oregon made seven free throws in the final 1:05.

2. Second chances.  Oregon was the better rebounding team on this night, and they took advantage of several second chances.  Overall the Ducks held a 43-36 advantage on the glass, and they turned 15 offensive rebounds into 23 second chance points.  That more than offset a solid defensive night by the Hoosiers, who held Oregon to just 39.3% from the field for the game.

3. Free throw disparity.  Indiana took a season low seven attempts from the free throw line and made just three of them.  Their previous low attempts was 12.  Meanwhile Oregon made 19-of-21 from the stripe, giving them a 16 point advantage on free throws made.  Indiana was called for just three more fouls and that difference came via late fouls out of necessity.  But the disparity on free throws came on field goal attempts at the rim, as the Ducks drew whistles on offense and were able to play a physical style on the other end.

HIGHLIGHTS

Oregon’s results and roster:

Oregon’s KenPom notable numbers:

(out of 364 teams)

Tempo – No. 163 (Offense No. 103 / Defense No. 254)

Offensive Efficiency – No. 35

• The Ducks hold an effective field goal percentage of 52.2% on the year (No. 112). As a team, they shoot 34.2% on threes (No. 161) and 52.7% on twos (No. 118).
• As you could have guessed, not much has changed metrics-wise since the two last matched up. Their best metric on offense is their free-throw percentage, which sits at 76.3% (No. 50). They shot 19-21 from the line in the first duel.
• Their point distribution is fairly even as well, with free throws being the highest compared to other teams at 19.9%, No. 129.
• Three-pointers have not been emphasized, as they attempt them at a 38.7% rate (No. 178). Their assist rate was also noted in the last game, which now sits at 54.6% (No. 105). They had 15 assists on 24 made field goals in the last game.

Defensive Efficiency – No. 36

• Teams have shot a 49.3% effective field goal percentage against the Ducks (No. 104). They shoot 31.5% from three (No. 60) and 50.6% on twos (No. 165). Indiana shot 9-25 from three in the first game.
• Oregon does a good job of limiting opportunities from the free throw line with a 27.4% attempt rate for every field goal attempt (No. 49). Compared to Oregon’s 21 attempts, IU has just seven in the first game.
• Teams found the most success on twos during the regular season, as it made up 52.6% of total points in opponent point distribution (No. 67).
• They can be a bit vulnerable on the offensive glass with a 29.1% opposing rate (No. 148). Indiana had 13 in the first game.

OG’s Pick

Win/Loss Record: 24-4

The first round of the Big Ten Tournament is here for the Hoosiers, and it’s against a recent opponent they took down to the wire.

The major stat that I notice when looking at that game is the free throw discrepancy. Oregon earned 14 more attempts at the line against Indiana, and missed just two shots. IU made just 3-of-7. We can sit here and play the “what if” game all day, but even if IU capitalizes on a few more shots at the line, it’s a completely new ball game.

Moreover, the Hoosiers didn’t necessarily have their best game offensively. They shot 40% as a team from the field, and Galloway was their leading scorer with 16. Ballo had 10 for the other double-figure number, and Reneau, Carlyle, and Goode each added eight. Reneau struggled from the field, going 4-12.

To be fair, I don’t think Oregon played their best offensive game either. However, when you take into account some of the offensive games Indiana has had in the latter half of the season, there is certainly room to improve. Not to mention, the Hoosiers are still considered a bubble team by many media outlets, and there are plenty of bid stealers that could sneak in.

Overall, IU has a lot of pressure in this game, and only time will tell if they can handle it.

Expect it to be a battle in Indy.

Pick: Indiana 68 – Oregon 66

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