Since Indiana’s 2023-24 season came to an end, all of the focus turned to filling holes on the roster via the transfer portal.
But the Hoosiers have six players returning from last year’s squad, so it’s time to look back at how they performed, and the outlook for 2024-25.
Next up in the series is 6-foot-8 and 217-pound Mackenzie Mgbako, who is returning to IU for his second season with the program.
WHAT WENT WELL
The best trend for a freshman is improvement over time, and after a choppy start, Mgbako was named the Big Ten’s co-Freshman of the Year. That seems like a pretty good way to finish things out.
The New Jersey product was one of two Hoosiers to start all 33 games, and he averaged 12.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 27.1 minutes per game. Those numbers were in line with what could have been reasonably expected for a freshman of his caliber.
Mgbako made a team-high 50 3-pointers and made 82.1% (92-of-112) from the free throw line. He scored in double figures 25 times and added three 20-point outings.
Highlighting his diverse skill set as modern and big wing, Mgbako was one of two freshmen in the NCAA to score over 400 points, make at least 50 3-pointers, convert on 90-plus free throws, and grab at least 125 rebounds.
Mgbako didn’t turn the ball over at a high rate (10.5% in the Big Ten, 10th in the league), and his 4.1 fouls drawn per 40 minutes was 20th best in the conference.
Most important when it comes to Mgbako, he got better as time went on. One way to illustrate that — he shot 37.8% from three in the Big Ten, vs. 32.7% overall.
That doesn’t always happen for freshmen, who often hit a wall as their first year progresses.
But during Indiana’s surprising late season four-game winning streak, Mgbako was at his best, averaging 16.5 points while shooting 46.5% from three. He clinched his share of the Big Ten Freshman of the Year during that span.
WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER
Mgbako’s start to college life definitely could have gone better. He was arrested in connection with a relatively minor late evening situation just weeks before the start of the season.
And Mgbako was a defensive liability at times during the season, especially during the early part of his freshman campaign. He only played 18 minutes per contest over his first five games, and Mgbako wasn’t making threes during that span either (just 2-of-18).
People reasonably wondered why a 5-star, McDonald’s All-American freshman was struggling so much, and head coach Mike Woodson defended his young star. But he also was willing to say at times he needed to see more.
“He’s got to play harder and do the things we want on both ends of the floor,” Woodson said of Mgbako in November. “That might keep him in the game.”
Woodson later explained Mgbako played a lot of zone defense in high school. He wasn’t as prepared as others for switching and help concepts, especially as things unfold at college game speed.
KEY QUESTIONS FOR 2024-25
There’s no doubt Mgbako will be in the starting lineup, and he’ll almost certainly be playing the three role at the opening tip. But one of the biggest questions surrounding the entire team is how much he’ll play the stretch-four role in year two. That seems like a more natural fit for him on both ends of the floor, but it will only happen when Woodson takes one of Malik Reneau or Oumar Ballo off the court.
Another question is how much Mgbako might benefit from being surrounded by better guards, which should almost certainly be the case with Myles Rice and Kanaan Carlyle in Bloomington. As a freshman, Mgbako necessarily took a lot of contested threes, and when run off the arc, he faced a lot of traffic in the paint. If Mgbako can improve as a ball handler and benefits from better spacing, his offensive game could take a meaningful jump in year two.
If Mgbako shoots the ball from three at a high rate, the scout on him will quickly turn to making him beat his man off the dribble and forcing him to utilize his ball skills to score. To maximize his impact, he’ll have to become a more skilled and fluid athlete when on the move. Especially if his primary role is small forward and he’s trying to beat smaller wings off the dribble.
PREDICTIONS
Because IU now has guards who can score and they also have productive big men, Mgbako might not generate a lot more points in year two. The real numbers to watch are his shooting percentages and overall offensive efficiency. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him end up over 50% from two, and pushing 40% from three.
Based on the raw numbers, Mgbako wasn’t a high-level rebounder for a 6-foot-8 player. But he wasn’t bad either, and did show good instincts in that area. He had six games of seven-or-more rebounds while playing in the shadow of Kel’el Ware and Malik Reneau. If Mgbako plays more power forward this season, he seems to have the tools to hold his own on the glass — especially with another year of college weight training and conditioning under his belt.
Mgbako will likely also be an improved defender as well, especially when he’s not trying to stay in front of guards on the perimeter.
His head coach believes Mgbako’s improvement will continue into year two, and all things considered, that seems reasonable to expect.
“It’s no different than going from college to the NBA. It’s a learning curve,” Woodson said in May. “I don’t give a shit how good you are, you have to learn. And, it was a learning curve for him — it was an eye-opener for him because he did struggle early, but he just kept working and working and working and he got better. And I can’t help but think he’s gonna continue to get better.”
PREVIOUSLY IN THE SERIES
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