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    IU football game day: Michigan at Indiana primer and prediction

    Mike SchumannBy IU Football 16 Comments
    Photo by Seth Tow for TDH

    Once again, a massive spotlight shines bright on sold out Memorial Stadium as we hit the back quarter of the 2024 season.

    CBS Sports is in town with their top crew and prominent 3:30 time slot. And the defending national champs are in Bloomington too.

    But on Saturday, it will be Michigan looking to playing the spoiler role against the CFP No. 8 Hoosiers.

    Here’s everything you need to know about Indiana’s matchup against the Wolverines.

    MICHIGAN (5-4, 3-3) at No. 8/10 INDIANA (9-0, 6-0)

    • Kickoff:  3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
    • Location:  Bloomington, Ind., Memorial Stadium (52,626; field turf)
    • Television: CBS — Brad Nessler (pbp), Gary Danielson (analyst), Jenny Dell (sideline)
    • Stream:  CBS Sports
    • Radio:  IU Football radio network
    • Odds:  Indiana is a 14-point favorite
    • Weather at kickoff:  61 degrees, cloudy, wind 8 mph, 0% chance of precipitation.
    • Series:  Michigan leads 62-10
    • Tickets:  Use our StubHub affiliate link
    • The Coaches:
      • Curt Cignetti is in his first year as the head coach at IU.  He holds a 128-35 record in his 14th season as a college head coach.
      • Sherrone Moore is 5-4 in his first full season as a head coach.  He filled in one game last season and went 1-0.

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    TALE OF THE TAPE 

    THE COMPLETE BIG TEN WEEK 11 SLATE

    FRIDAY, NOV. 8
    Iowa at UCLA 9 p.m. FOX

    SATURDAY, NOV. 9
    Purdue at Ohio State 12 p.m. FOX
    Minnesota at Rutgers 12 p.m. NBC
    Michigan at Indiana 3:30 p.m. CBS
    Maryland at Oregon 7 p.m. Big Ten Network
    Washington at Penn State 8 p.m. Peacock

    MICHIGAN 2024 RESULTS

    08/31/24 Fresno St. W 30-10
    09/07/24 5 Texas L 12-31
    09/14/24 Arkansas St. W 28-18
    09/21/24 Southern California W 27-24
    09/28/24 Minnesota W 27-24
    10/05/24 @ Washington L 17-27
    10/19/24 @ Illinois L 7-21
    10/26/24 Michigan St. W 24-17
    11/02/24 1 Oregon L 17-38

    MICHIGAN NOTES AND NUMBERS

    (Via Michigan Athletics)

    • Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades U-M well in the following categories: overall (28th, 89.1), defense (11th, 89.1), rushing defense (fifth, 92.8), pass rush (first, 90.7), and special teams (28th, 81.3).

    • Now with four starts under his belt, quarterback Davis Warren is completing 65 percent of his passes with a 122.8 efficiency mark and five touchdown passes. Warren had his first multi-touchdown effort last weekend against Oregon with touchdown passes to Peyton O’Leary and Tyler Morris.

    • Entering the season, Kalel Mullings had a career-long run of 23 yards (at Minnesota, 2023). So far this season he has five runs of at least 30 yards: 30 (touchdown), 30, 38, 53 (touchdown), and 63 yards.

    • Mullings has seven rushing touchdowns this season. He is tied as Pro Football Focus’ No. 24-graded rusher (87.1), averaging 3.73 yards after contact per attempt. He’s lost only 14 yards on 131 attempts this year.

    • Both Mullings (5.4) and Donovan Edwards (4.7) have productive yards-per-carry numbers. Mullings ranks 39th overall with 710 rushing yards.

    • Edwards is also just 32 yards shy of setting the career receiving yards record by a running back at Michigan, currently held by Anthony Thomas (810 yards). He passed B.J. Askew (777) last weekend against the Ducks.

    • According to the Big Ten Network, Edwards is the only Big Ten running back this century with multiple touchdown rushes (18), receptions(four), and passes (two) in his career.

    • Tight end Colston Loveland has been the leader or co-leader in receptions for U-M in every game he has played this season (eight), with 48 total catches. Loveland’s 69 total targets are third in the nation among FBS tight ends.

    • With his first career 100-yard effort (106) last weekend against the Ducks, Loveland is 99 yards shy of the single-season receiving yards record by a tight end (748) set by Devin Funchess in 2013. For his career, he’s at 1,407 yards (record: Jake Butt, 1,646).

    • Before Loveland, the last U-M tight end to reach 100 receiving yards was Jake Butt (Rutgers, 2015).

    • Loveland remains highly efficient, averaging 3.06 yards per route run according to PFF. That figure is third in the country among FBS tight ends (minimum 30 targets) and first among Big Ten tight ends. Loveland is one of three tight ends at or above 3.0 yards per route run in all the FBS (minimum 30 targets).

    • Loveland is in third place all-time in touchdowns among U-M tight ends with 10 in his career (next: Jake Butt, 11; record by Jerame Tuman, 15).

    • Among U-M tight ends, Loveland and Jake Butt (2013-16) are the only players to reach 12 games with at least 50 receiving yards.

    • The Wolverine defense has had at least six TFL in five of six Big Ten games, totaling 40 tackles for loss and 17 sacks. Both those figures are tied-second in league play. Indiana leads in both categories.

    • The Wolverines rank 40th nationally in sacks (2.33 per game), led by Josaiah Stewart‘s 6.5. Stewart ranks 14th in the country in sacks and in league play, his 5.5 sacks rank second in the Big Ten with one fewer game played; Graham ranks tied-16th (3.5).

    • Stewart has at least a share of a sack in four of the last five games (2.0 vs. USC, 1.0 vs. Washington, 0.5 vs. Illinois, 1.0 vs. Michigan State). His win rate of 25.8 percent is No. 4 in the nation (minimum 70 pass rush snaps). Derrick Moore (21.8, ninth) and TJ Guy (19, 19th) are also among the nation’s best in pass rush win rate.

    • Kenneth Grant (two fumble recoveries), Zeke Berry (one interception, one fumble forced/recovered) and Will Johnson (two interceptions) are tied for the team lead in turnovers. Six different players are responsible for U-M’s nine defensive turnovers (three fumble recoveries, six interceptions).

    • Sixteen (16) different players have broken up passes for the defense this year including six different defensive linemen/edge rushers. Jyaire Hill leads the team with eight (including one interception) and Kenneth Grant leads all defensive linemen with four. Hill has at least one pass breakup in seven of his last eight games.

    • Grant has been active in this area throughout his career; he had six breakups in 2023, giving him 10 for his career, the highest total among any U-M defensive linemen in history. Across 2023 and 2024 combined, the defensive line has been responsible for almost a quarter (24.7 percent) of the team’s total pass breakups (10-of-44 in 2024; 18-of-69 in 2023).

    • Among FBS interior defensive linemen, Mason Graham is credited with the second-most pressures (28; sacks, hits, hurries). He’s also graded the nation’s top-graded run defender (91.9), with Rayshaun Benny (84.9) graded 16th.

    • Ernest Hausmann leads the U-M defense with 66 tackles, 13 clear of the next-highest total. Hausmann set a Michigan career-high with 12 tackles at Washington, matching his best career total at Nebraska, and registered nine-plus tackles in four of the last five games.

    • Tommy Doman is the tied-16th-graded punter in the nation by PFF (76.4) among those with at least 24 attempts. The 21 fair catches he’s forced are two off the national lead and one off the Big Ten lead.

    • Doman is also a weapon on kickoffs, with 26 touchbacks on 41 kickoffs (63.4 percent). U-M is 18th in the nation in kick return defense (16.6 yards per return, on average).

    • Doman, whose pro-style approach meshes hangtime with distance to give U-M effective coverage units, ranks eighth in the country and second in the Big Ten in average hangtime (4.25 seconds) among punters with 24-plus attempts.

    • Dominic Zvada is 10-for-11 this year (one blocked). He is tied for the U-M career record with four made field goals at 50-plus yards and is the first U-M kicker with four field goals of 50-plus yards in the same season.

    • Zvada is one of seven kickers with four or more conversions at 50-plus yards, but only one of two (Pittsburgh’s Ben Sauls) who has gone four-for-four on such kicks.

    • The special teams units have been making plays, with a blocked kick in three straight games (vs. Minnesota, at Washington, at Illinois), and a fumble forced in punt coverage against Oregon by Joe Taylor. The fumble was recovered by C.J. Charleston.

    PREDICTIONS

    For the first time since 1968, Indiana is favored over Michigan.  By a lot.  The Wolverines have talent.  And that means they’re dangerous.  But the Hoosiers have more firepower.

    TDH PREDICTION:  INDIANA 31  MICHIGAN 20

    • ESPN SP+ (Computer):  Indiana 30 Michigan 18 (78% win probability)
    • ESPN FPI (Computer):  Indiana has an 87% chance to win.

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