Despite a 7-1 start to the season including 2-0 in the Big Ten, Indiana finds itself going nowhere fast.
Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers have lost six of their last eleven games, including four of their last six in league play.
At this moment, ranked No. 101 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, Indiana is not even sniffing the NCAA Tournament.
While things seem a bit more dire in 2024, it’s a predicament IU was in around this time in Woodson’s two prior campaigns in Bloomington.
Rewinding back to 2022, Indiana went on the road on Jan. 29 and defeated Maryland 68-55 to move to 16-5 overall and 7-4 in the league.
But they immediately followed that up with a five game losing streak, including a game at Northwestern where five players were suspended for violating team rules. Suddenly sitting at 16-10 and 7-9 in late February, Indiana found themselves on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in, with little time to spare.
Only a stunning run in the 2022 Big Ten Tournament saved IU two years ago, and even that was only good enough for the NCAA Tournament’s First Four in Dayton.
But credit Woodson — he got Trayce Jackson-Davis to play on another level when he was needed most, and he got Xavier Johnson to play the best basketball of his career. At 20-13 overall and 9-11 in the Big Ten, IU snuck into the dance.
Last year the trouble came in the same timeframe we are seeing now.
An early December loss at Rutgers kicked off six losses in nine games as the once No. 10 ranked Hoosiers fell to 10-6 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten. They suddenly had a lot of work to do to return to the NCAA Tournament conversation.
Injuries were a big part of the story a year ago. Johnson went down with a season-ending broken foot. Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino dealt with lower back issues. And Race Thompson suffered a knee injury at Iowa that cost him several games.
Even with Johnson out for the season and Thompson out for a key stretch, Indiana recovered. And again, Woodson deserves credit for righting the ship. Jackson-Davis produced an All-American season, Indiana reeled off five-straight wins, finished 11-4 in the Big Ten over their last 15 conference games to finish second, and comfortably made the NCAA field.
So sitting today at 12-7 overall and 4-4 in the Big Ten, one might conclude there is no reason to panic. We’ve seen this story before.
Right?
Not so fast.
There are few more troubling aspects to Woodson’s third Indiana team — the year by which a coach’s system should be well established, and if it’s going to be a successful tenure, you’d expect things would be humming along.
But the analytics hate Indiana this year. And that’s mainly because the (1) the Hoosiers are 0-6 in Quad 1 games according to the NET, and (2) they have rarely defeated any team, especially low and mid-majors, by a convincing margin.
IU’s seven losses have come by an average of 15.7 points. Some of the losses were worse than the final box score suggests. UConn led by 24, Nebraska led by 22, and Wisconsin led by 23.
Only the loss to Kansas was a close loss, and even that one adds to the negative cloud hanging over this team. Indiana led that game by double figures in the second half. But they couldn’t hold on and do what similarly mediocre teams like West Virginia and UCF have done since — defeat the Jayhawks on their home court.
Too close for comfort wins over teams that have turned out to be less than impressive like Florida Gulf Coast, Army, and Wright State haven’t helped the resume either.
Roster construction was a concern coming into the season and has proven to be an issue. Woodson owns a major part of that, as he hasn’t put an attractive system on the court to attract high volume scoring wings.
IU lacks scoring production and depth in the backcourt, and that means several players are playing an unnatural position. Mackenzie Mgbako is clearly a modern stretch-four but he’s playing the three. Malik Reneau is clearly a modern small ball center but he’s playing the four. The Hoosiers have an abundance of riches in the front court, but that doesn’t translate in the modern, well-spaced, up-tempo game of college basketball.
Those big men playing out of position has led to excessive fouling and poor perimeter defense. Opposing teams have generated a 41.7 percent free throw rate (FTA/FGA) against the Hoosiers. That’s No. 329 in the country. And opponents are shooting 35.2 percent against IU from three — that’s No. 265 in the nation. And while the Hoosiers play a big lineup, they aren’t quick. That’s led to rebounding issues as well.
There’s also been a stunning lack of composure, as Indiana leads the nation with seven flagrant fouls. It’s been enough to make you think back to that Northwestern incident two years ago, and wonder if there are dots to connect.
Yes, there have been injuries once again. Johnson missed seven games including three of the losses, and he hasn’t been close to his late 2022 form since returning from a second foot injury. Kel’el Ware missed the Wisconsin game. But injuries haven’t been the defining story of this season.
We’ve told you the problems. Indiana has a flawed roster, they lack discipline and attention to detail, and they bring inconsistent effort.
Can Woodson once again find answers mid-season?
The latter two problems are correctible, even as unlikely as that seems at the moment. But the roster is the overarching issue. Moreover, Jackson-Davis isn’t coming out of that phone booth caped and ready to lead the turnaround.
At this moment Woodson deserves the benefit of the doubt. And despite the shortcomings, IU should be relatively healthy when they return to action this weekend.
But leave no doubt, a major course correction from here would be his best work yet.
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