Big Ten titles and national titles.
When it comes to team goals, that has been IU coach Mike Woodson’s refrain since he was hired in 2021.
Indiana hasn’t been in the conversation for a national title in a long time.
And only once have the Hoosiers been anywhere near the top of the league in Woodson’s three seasons, when they finished 12-8 and in a second-place tie in 2023, albeit three games out of first.
Indiana opened conference play last month with a win over Minnesota and a loss at Nebraska, pushing Woodson’s Big Ten record to a pedestrian 32-30 in his three-plus seasons at the helm.
To this point Woodson’s squad doesn’t look like a team ready to contend for a Big Ten crown.
While the Hoosiers were picked as a preseason top-25 team, they haven’t lived up to that billing. Playing against a relatively soft schedule to this point, IU has no wins against teams inside the KenPom top-60 and only one against teams inside the top-85. They have no Quad-1 wins from an NCAA NET rankings standpoint.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers fell behind by nearly 40 to an 8-5 unranked Louisville team, were blown out by top-10 Gonzaga, and collapsed on the road at unranked Nebraska.
The preseason rankings were bestowed on Indiana because they have talent. Many national commentators said these Hoosiers were one of, if not the most talented teams in the league.
But are they one of the best teams? While all their goals are still in front of them, Indiana has not looked like a top-25 squad or a Big Ten contender, and certainly not a national title contender.
And it’s all Big Ten from here.
The rest of the way Indiana is going to see a lot more of teams that look like Gonzaga, Louisville and Nebraska, and a lot less Winthrop and Chattanooga — mediocre mid-major teams they escaped against at home.
But the league is not built like recent vintage editions of the Big Ten.
Gone is Zach Edey and his stranglehold on the top of the standings. Purdue is a pretty uninspiring 9-4 with four blowout losses, and no one in the conference appears worthy of the dominant label at this point. The chase for the regular season title appears to be pretty wide open at the moment.
There are already only just three undefeated teams left in conference play — Michigan, UCLA, and Michigan State. They all look like legitimate contenders, along with Illinois, Oregon, Maryland, Purdue and Ohio State.
But none of those teams are ranked inside the KenPom top-10. There is no Goliath here. Every team in the league already has at least two overall losses except Oregon. If the AP top-25 is your thing, the ranked teams there are No. 9 Oregon (12-1), No. 15 UCLA (11-2), No. 18 Michigan State (10-2), No. 20 Purdue (9-4), and No. 22 Illinois (9-3). Indiana was preseason No. 17 but is now unranked, and just getting votes from one person.
KenPom’s game-by-game projections are predicting chaos, with 14-6 good enough to win the regular season title. That outlet predicts Michigan will finish with that record, with three 13-7 teams and three 12-8 teams right behind them.
But don’t confuse wide open with easy.
A full 13 Big Ten teams are ranked inside the KenPom top-45, and they are all currently ahead of No. 56 IU. There are three top-20 offenses — Purdue (10), Wisconsin (15) and Iowa (19), and seven top-20 defenses — UCLA (4), Maryland (8), Illinois (12), Nebraska (13), Michigan (15), Michigan State (17) and Northwestern (20).
IU has a chance to resume Big Ten play in a positive way. They host KenPom No. 75 Rutgers on Thursday, and No. 83 USC next week. They’ll be favored in both games. Those games are tucked around a trip to Philadelphia to play No. 39 Penn State at the historic Palestra.
IU has a very good chance to start Big Ten play at least 3-2.
But beginning with a road game at Iowa on Jan. 11, the Hoosiers play 11 straight games against teams ranked inside the KenPom top-45, with six of those games coming on the road, including a stretch of five-of-seven away from home.
We’ll find out everything we need to know during that 11-game span.
What will it take for IU to contend?
Indiana is going to have to improve defensively, especially on the perimeter, where guarding straight line drives and communicating on screens has been a challenge. In their losses, IU’s defense has collapsed. Opponents in those games shot 55% overall and 39% from three. The Hoosiers have to stay in front of the ball, and they have to stay with shooters and close out more aggressively.
They’ll need much more consistent backcourt play out of Myles Rice and Trey Galloway, two players who have been great at times, and enigmatic at others.
And the Hoosiers need improved three-point shooting of their own, especially from Luke Goode and Kanaan Carlyle, two players who can change games with their scoring ability from long range. The potential is there, as IU made 36% from three over their first nine games, only to make 20% over the last four.
Here is Indiana’s schedule over the final 18 games of the regular season, with each team’s current KenPom ranking:
- Jan. 2 – vs. No. 75 Rutgers
- Jan. 5 – at No. 39 Penn State
- Jan. 8 – vs. No. 83 USC
- Jan. 11 – at No. 44 Iowa
- Jan. 14 – vs. No. 18 Illinois
- Jan. 17 – at No. 28 Ohio State
- Jan. 22 – at No. 45 Northwestern
- Jan. 26 – vs. No. 17 Maryland
- Jan. 31 – at No. 27 Purdue
- Feb. 4 – at No. 31 Wisconsin
- Feb. 8 – vs. No. 10 Michigan
- Feb. 11 – at No. 20 Michigan State
- Feb. 14 – vs. No. 13 UCLA
- Feb. 23 – vs. No. 27 Purdue
- Feb. 26 – vs. No. 39 Penn State
- March 1 – at No. 100 Washington
- March 4 – at No. 12 Oregon
- March 8 – vs. No. 28 Ohio State
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