Losers of eight of their last ten games, Indiana appears on track to finish with an overall losing record for just the 18th time in the last 100 years.
But peeling back the onion a bit, things are even worse than just the basic won/loss record.
Holistically, analytics site KenPom.com says Indiana is the No. 105 team in the nation as of Sunday evening based on adjusted efficiency margin (difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency). For context, there are only 82 high major college basketball programs.
Adjusted efficiency margin has become an important part of the formula used by the NCAA Tournament Committee to examine and sort Division I programs. In very simple terms it measures the difference between how many points per possession a team is expected to score vs. how many they are expected to allow, against the average Division I team.
IU has not finished a season worse than No. 82 according to that measure since the 2009-10 campaign, when Tom Crean’s second team was ranked No. 194. And that No. 82 squad was Crean’s third team the following year, a 12-20 group that went 3-15 in the Big Ten.
The data on KenPom goes back to the 1997 season and thus includes the last four seasons of the Bob Knight era. If you ignore Crean’s first three years, IU has never had a team worse than No. 94. That was Mike Davis’ 14-15 team in 2003-04.
Woodson’s previous worst team was his first, when IU finished No. 48 in 2021-22. Archie Miller’s worst team was his first as well, the No. 71 ranked 2017-18 squad. Crean’s worst team in his final five years was the No. 63 2013-14 team. All of Kelvin Sampson and Bob Knight’s teams were top-32.
Back in the current year, IU is the No. 13 team in the Big Ten, ahead of only Michigan in overall net efficiency. They haven’t been that low in the league standings since Crean’s first three years either.
There are other less analytical but equally eye-catching ways to measure Indiana’s struggle this year.
The Hoosiers have lost eight games this season by double-digits (and two more by nine), and three of those double-digit losses came at home.
Indiana got swept by Penn State for the first time since 2008-09, another relic of Crean’s first three years. They were swept by Nebraska for the second time ever and first time since 2013-14. Overall IU is 0-6 this year against Penn State, Nebraska, Northwestern and Rutgers — teams that have had some recent success but aren’t thought of as traditional powers.
The Hoosiers lost both games to Purdue by 20 or more points. It’s the first time that happened since the 1933-34 season.
IU has played four games this year against current KenPom top-10 teams — UConn, Auburn and Purdue twice. They lost those four games by a combined total of 89 points (22.25 per game). They’ve lost all 13 games by a total of exactly 200 points, or an average loss of 15.4 points per game.
The Hoosiers have no wins over teams ranked inside the KenPom top-40. And they’ve got some ugly wins over less than stellar teams, like victories by just six over No. 263 Florida Gulf Coast, eight over No. 335 Army, nine over No. 148 Wright State, and one over No. 122 Morehead State.
So what exactly has led to this team being one of Indiana’s worst in recent history?
The outlier data points on IU’s resume should be familiar.
Indiana is No. 345 (out of 362 teams) when it comes to free throw percentage (65.3%). And that’s unfortunate, because the Hoosiers are the 18th best team when it comes to earning trips to the charity stripe.
IU is No. 290 shooting from beyond the arc (31.5%).
And here’s an offensive number that might catch you off guard a bit. Despite having the fourth tallest team (based on minutes played), IU is only No. 238 in offensive rebounding rate.
On the defensive end, Indiana is one of the worst teams at creating turnovers (14.8% forced turnover rate, No. 315). That doesn’t compare favorably to IU’s offensive turnover rate and ranking (17%, No. 170).
And once again, opponent offensive rebounds are a problem considering IU’s height. Teams are grabbing 30.1 percent of their misses, the No. 225 rate nationally.
Between a lack of turnovers and excessive offensive rebounds, opponents are getting a lot of chances to score. And teams are shooting 34.8 percent from three against the Hoosiers. That comes in at No. 247.
So you can see the whipsaw Indiana has created.
They turn it over more than their opponents, get less offensive rebounds, and shoot worse from both the behind the arc and the free throw line. All that really remains is to try to dominate the paint, and that only goes so far against high major length and athleticism intent on stopping it — or even mid-majors with a bunch of quick guards who can shoot.
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