Indiana women’s basketball’s bumpy season is at a crucial point.
The Hoosiers likely sit on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with two regular season games remaining, but their margin for error remains slim. However, a senior night win over No. 19 Maryland on Thursday in Bloomington should allow them to exhale.
IU picked up its biggest win of the season last week over then-No. 8 Ohio State, but then squandered that momentum with a loss at then-No. 22 Michigan State Sunday. That’s the way this entire campaign has gone for Indiana — aside from a December winning streak against non-conference mid-majors and bad Big Ten opponents, this team hasn’t been able to generate consistency. The Hoosiers enjoyed their highest high of the season with the OSU victory, and while MSU isn’t a bad loss, it still exemplified their struggles for consistency.
“I always say, the good teams win at home, great teams win on the road,” head coach Teri Moren said after the Michigan State game. “I’d love to be able to bottle it (IU’s energy at home) up for these guys and bring it with us, but that’s not how it works. I’ve been doing it a long time. I think you have to have the same energy on the road as you do at home.”
Indeed, Moren’s team has had more trouble winning away from Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall this year. The Hoosiers are 4-5 in true road games this season, with several ugly performances mixed with some wasted opportunities. Some of their wins in those games weren’t great either — they nearly blew a large lead at Washington, and they held on despite a rough performance at Northwestern.
That’s a particularly concerning trend heading into March because if Indiana makes the NCAA Tournament, it’ll be on the road. This team is looking at no better than a No. 7 seed, and a No. 10 or No. 11 seed — and a First Four appearance — are certainly still in play. The first round would essentially be a neutral site, with the crowd preference dependent on location. And if IU advanced in that game, it’d likely face a true road environment, barring a top-16 team getting upset.
Turnover trouble
Indiana is capable of strong performances. The Ohio State game was one of its best all season. Through the years, the Buckeyes have flummoxed IU with stingy press defense, a major flaw of Moren’s teams. But IU looked as good against the press against OSU as it had in a long time.
But even then, the Hoosiers still didn’t play a full 40 minutes of quality basketball. They committed 10 turnovers in the fourth quarter to put them at 21 for the game, and that prevented them from truly finishing off the Buckeyes before the final minute.
IU is averaging 14.6 turnovers per game this season, which isn’t problematic on the surface. But it’s become a major issue recently: the Hoosiers have committed 18.3 turnovers per game over the last four contests. Their 18 turnovers against Michigan State proved very costly.
Chloe Moore-McNeil, Shay Ciezki, Sydney Parrish, Yarden Garzon, and Karoline Striplin — Indiana’s entire starting lineup — are all averaging more turnovers per game than any other season of their careers.
“I don’t think it’s ever too late to fix the turnover issue,” Moore-McNeil said after the MSU game. “I think a lot of the turnovers we had (on Sunday) were careless mistakes, and a lot of them were caused by nobody but ourselves.”
Biggest keys? Outside shooting, and Yarden Garzon
For Indiana to go on a run in March, it needs to lean on its biggest strength: 3-point shooting.
IU is one of the best 3-point teams in the country this season, shooting 36.3 percent to rank 21st in the nation and third in the Big Ten. The team averages 7.8 made triples per game, which is 56th in the country and third in the conference. When the Hoosiers make at least eight 3-pointers, they’re 13-1 on the year — and the lone loss came against No. 4 USC.
Garzon is one of the strongest individual outside shooters in the Big Ten as well. Her 39.5 percent clip from beyond the arc is third in the conference among qualified shooters, only trailing Iowa’s Taylor McCabe (42.6) and Washington’s Sayvia Sellers (40.4). Garzon is leading Indiana with 13.9 points per game, but she’s become very streaky during Big Ten play — she’s capable of carrying the team, but when she’s having an off-night, she’s way off.
Ciezki (35.7 percent), Parrish (33 percent), and Moore-McNeil (37.9 percent) are all also important outside shooters. But Garzon is one of the biggest keys to this team’s outlook. When she shoots 35 percent or better from 3-point range, Indiana is 14-2; when the Israeli falls below that clip, IU is 3-8. She’s more than just a shooter, but those stats just underscore her importance to IU’s success and failure this season.
Garzon was one of IU’s best players against Purdue, one game before the OSU upset. The junior came out aggressive from the very beginning and finished with 14 points and 11 rebounds for her third double-double of the season, along with six assists. That’s the version of Yarden Garzon Indiana needs the rest of the season.
“She can score in a lot of different ways. We just need her to have that mentality that she had today with just being more aggressive,” Moren said after the Purdue game. “We need her. We need her consistency. We need her to be aggressive.”
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